Robert Whittaker has chased the middleweight title ever since losing it against Israel Adesanya in 2019. The journey has remained long and unsuccessful. After the inaugural event in Saudi Arabia, Whittaker looks as solid as ever inside the octagon. However, time is not on Whittaker’s side. The problem with time exists because of the star power of Israel Adesanya.
At no time did Adesanya fight back to a title shot as the UFC gifted him title rematches immediately. First, it was after the UFC 281 title loss to Alex Pereira. At UFC 293, he lost the title to Sean Strickland. Almost a year later, he received the title shot at UFC 305. Considering what has happened, the value and star power that Adesanya held benefitted him over someone like Sean Strickland or Robert Whittaker.
Now, that star power will likely cost Whittaker his chance to reclaim the middleweight gold. Right now, Whittaker is stuck. Adesanya and Strickland remain above him in the pecking order. Booking Whittaker vs. Strickland could solve the problem of who becomes the next title contender after Adesanya’s attempt at UFC 305. However, ‘Tarzan’ will wait for a title shot. This logjam leaves a lot for us to think about.
Untimely injury and UFC business model affects Robert Whittaker’s chances
The UFC business model requires a major star to headline events in specific markets. As such, the Australian market will need either Adesanya or Alexander Volkanovski. This year, Volkanovski lost his title in February. This left a void to be filled by someone from the Oceanic region. The star power held by Israel Adesanya meant he could headline the card as a challenger.
Robert Whittaker (Image via Imago)Who will he challenge, though? Before UFC 297, it was Sean Strickland. However, Dricus Du Plessis dethroned Strickland to emerge as Izzy’s new opponent. At one point, UFC 300 seemed like a perfect place to settle the bitter rivalry between Du Plessis and Adesanya. However, Du Plessis declined the fight offer due to injury. This meant the UFC would wait until the August PPV event to have Adesanya vs. Du Plessis.
Regardless of who wins, Whittaker will have to wait. Adesanya received his third crack at the title solely based on star power and heated rivalry with Du Plessis, which has elements of racism and Africa, something that will garner major mainstream attention. At the end of the day, the question came down to – What can Whittaker offer other than competitive rivalry against Du Plessis, Adesanya, or even Strickland? Â
UFC rewards Superstars, not Warriors
Robert Whittaker went through a murderer’s row of fighters to receive his title rematch against Adesanya in 2022. First, he defeated Darren Till by a decision. In 2020, most people expected Till to one day challenge for the middleweight title. At the time, no one expected him to go on a losing streak. Next, he defeated a dangerous striker, Jared Cannonier.
He just didn’t beat Cannonier. In fact, he outclassed Cannonier and even landed a knockdown. It is something Adesanya couldn’t do when he fought Cannonier in 2022. After that, the Aussie warrior faced Kelvin Gastelum in 2021 and outclassed the American fighter.
One must note that Gastelum almost defeated Adesanya in their 2019 encounter at UFC 236. Meanwhile, Whittaker outclassed Gastelum everywhere. Whittaker had to go through three top-tier middleweight fighters to receive his title rematch against Adesanya, which he lost in a closely contested bout.
Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya (Image via Imago)On the other hand, Adesanya received a title rematch against Alex Pereira in a matter of months. Yes, Adesanya had a long and dominant reign. He deserved to have an immediate rematch. ‘The Last Stylebender’ reclaimed the title by knocking ‘Poatan’ out. Five months later, he took on Sean Strickland at UFC 293. Adesanya lost in a humiliating fashion and claimed to take a long hiatus from the sport.
The hiatus lasted less than a year. He returns at UFC 305 to challenge now-champion Dricus Du Plessis for the title. What did Israel Adesanya do this time to receive the title shot? Nothing; his star power and beef with Du Plessis remain a must-see matchup of the year. Ultimately, Whittaker’s star power does not add up to that of Adesanya. As such, the reward goes to the one who puts more money on the table rather than the warrior who fights anyone at any time.
Age 35 curse might come for Robert Whittaker
The Age 35 curse happens to almost all fighters. Let’s take the last six years as an example. There are exceptions to the rule, but that doesn’t mean it disproves them. Tyron Woodley, Kamaru Usman, and Alexander Volkanovski all lost their title at 35 years old. This happens mostly in title fights and is not just limited to the champion.
In the case of challengers, Jared Cannonier lost against Adesanya in their title fight at UFC 276. He was 38 at the time. Henry Cejudo returned from retirement to face Aljamain Sterling. He was 36 at the time, and he lost to Sterling. The same goes for Colby Covington at UFC 296, Dominick Cruz at UFC 249, Jan Blachowicz at UFC 267, and Glover Texeira on two occasions (UFC 275 and UFC 283). The real question is how this affects Robert Whittaker.
Fighters aged 35 and above have a losing record in title fights (Image via Imago)Right now, Whittaker will be 34 by the end of the year. It will take a miracle for him to receive a title shot this year. Next year, the winner of Du Plessis vs. Adesanya will have to fight Sean Strickland first if ‘Tarzan’ continues to wait for a title shot. Strickland can wait it out because he just lost the title by a narrow split decision where many, including Dana White, thought he won.
Whittaker cannot play the waiting game. He needs to fight again. If he loses, he will fall further and never reach a title shot. Strickland vs. the winner of Adesanya/Du Plessis will likely happen around Spring 2025. No one knows what can happen by that time. As such, at the earliest, Whittaker might only get to fight for the title at the end of 2025, when he approaches 35 years old. Only time will tell if it is too late by then.
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