Mackenzie Dern is set to make her return to the octagon this weekend against Amanda Ribas in the main event of UFC Vegas 101. Dern enters the first UFC event of 2025 as the underdog, with the official UFC odds listing her as +164 underdog. Meanwhile, Ribas is a -198 favorite for the bout. The question remains whether the strawweight fighter can pull off an upset? Absolutely.
This might potentially set her up for a title fight against Zhang Weili or a major #1 contender bout against the likes of Yan Xiaonan or Virna Jandiroba. So, here are five reasons that show Dern may well be able to pull off the shock on Saturday night.
5. Mackenzie Dern has massively improved her striking defense
Dern was undefeated when she first entered the octagon against Ribas back in 2019. However, her Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu background was not enough to help her in that fight. The biggest issue that Dern had during that first encounter was controlling the fight on the feet. Ribas had her completely dominated in the striking department, landing 74 Significant Strikes compared to 20 for Dern.
Mackenzie Dern lost to Amanda Ribas in 2019 (Image via KGET.com)The Brazil-representing fighter has competed eleven times since her loss to Ribas. She should hopefully have the ability to contend with Ribas’ striking qualities this time round. Here are some of the key stats from that first encounter just to illustrate how dominant Ribas was against Dern back in 2019:
| Statistic | Mackenzie Dern | Amanda Ribas | Notes |
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 74 | Ribas showcased superior striking, landing 54 more significant strikes than Dern. |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 145 | 206 | Ribas maintained a high pace, attempting 87 more significant strikes than Dern. |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 14% | 36% | Ribas was far more successful in landing than Dern |
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 | Ribas successfully executed 2 takedowns, while Dern did not attempt any. |
| Takedown Attempts | 6 | 2 | Ribas had a 100% takedown success rate, completing both of her attempts. |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0% | 100% | Ribas’s perfect takedown accuracy contributed to her control during the fight. |
| Submission Attempts | 0 | 0 | Neither fighter attempted a submission during the bout. |
4. The timing of the fight
It was only four months after the birth of her daughter that Dern got back into the cage to take on Ribas in 2019. It is something that she herself has later admitted was a mistake. In terms of preparation, it is incredible to think that she was even in any position to compete at the highest level in MMA that close to giving birth.
Mackenzie Dern rematches Amanda Ribas at UFC Vegas 101 (Image via Instagram)Speaking at the recent UFC Vegas 101 media day, Dern revealed how she is in a completely different place mentally and in terms of confidence this time. After facing an array of power punchers like Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos, Dern feels a different mentality going forward.
3. Experience in 5 round fights
When it comes to experience in 5 round fights, Mackenzie Dern has the edge over Ribas. Dern has gone to the wire in 3 five-round fights in her UFC career so far against Marina Rodriguez, Xiaonan Yan, and Angela Hill. Granted, she only won the Hill fight via Unanimous decision, but that is one more 5-rounder that she has won than Ribas.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas (Image via Instagram)The only 5 round fight that Ribas has taken to the wire was her last bout. It was a loss against Rose Namajunas back in March 2024. Those extra minutes in the octagon and knowing what it takes to get the win in a main event is a big psychological advantage for Dern.
2. Conditioning
Adding to the last point, Mackenzie Dern has to come into this fight with a work-rate like no other. She has to keep pressure on her opponent and try to score the takedown to try and dominate on the floor. As I mentioned, Dern wasn’t able to take Ribas to the mat back in 2019, but if she is successful in doing so, she would be right at home.
Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas (Image via Instagram)Ribas is also a black belt in BJJ, but she has a tendency to work from her back. As such, if Dern can keep pressure in full guard, she can easily score points for control. On top pf that, Dern has seven of her 14 wins coming via submission, so she has the ability to end the fight on the ground. It’ll be tough against a fellow black belt, but anyone can be caught in the right circumstance.
1. This is arguably Mackenzie Dern’s last shot
Finally, I can easily see this being the last chance for Dern to establish herself as a top contender in the UFC. She has managed to top the bill for Fight Nights, but she (nor Ribas for that matter) has not managed to push up further the ranks to get to a title shot in recent years.
Mackenzie Dern must win to remain a contender (Image via Instagram/MMA Fighting)For someone who arguably has one of the best submission games in MMA, it is incredible that she hasn’t been able to translate that, along with her unreal toughness inside the octagon, into greater success. Her striking offense is really poor and fighters just aim to outstrike her by avoiding any grappling.
The question is whether or not she is able to build up enough momentum in the division, which I think she is capable of doing, but she just needs to get out of her own way mentally first. If Dern is able to defeat Ribas on Saturday night, then that would go a long way in helping her to make a statement at 115 pounds.
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