Arman Tsarukyan will aim to avenge his loss to Islam Makhachev when the two meet in the main event of UFC 311. The two fighters first collided back in the penultimate bout of UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Oleinik all the way back in April 2019. Makhachev was able to outlast the Armenian fighter to win via unanimous decision in a Fight of The Night performance from both men.
Now, both men will enter the octagon this weekend as very different competitors. The Dagestani star is now the reigning lightweight champion. Meanwhile, Tsarukyan just defeated Beneil Dariush and Charles Oliveira in back-to-back fights. The stakes of the fight are higher and the arena for the clash is grander, with their rematch coming in the main event as opposed to second-to-last on a free televised card.
Tsarukyan enters the octagon at UFC 311 as the underdog, with +330 odds compared to the champion’s -425. The Armenian fighter is the number 1 contender to the belt and this feels like his chance to make history this weekend. He is the underdog, but there are Arman getting the win, and I’ll lay out three of those below.
3. Arman is hitting his Athletic Prime
Makhachev was 27 when the two first met and Tsarukyan was 22. This time round, Arman will be hitting his athletic prime at 27, whilst Makhachev will be 33. Granted, the current champion is an absolute beast in the cage and a fantastic champion, but physically he’ll face an opponent, who has grown more into his body and will be peaking at just the right time.
Arman Tsarukyan shows off his physique (Image via Instagram/@arm_011)Islam Makhachev was strong in his first fight against his opponent because of his sensational grappling. You could tell that he had worked with Khabib Nurmagomedov practically his whole fighting life because he was clearly used to being smothered and having to find a way out of difficult situations on the ground.
Makhachev was able to weather the storm from the Armenian star and took over in round 3, showing that he could put pressure on his opponent and be just as relentless himself. Arman Tsarukyan is coming into this fight with an unreal physique, he is making sure that he will not be outworked by the champion…at least that’s what he hopes will be the case.
2. Focusing on kicks instead of trying to outbox Islam Makhachev
Speaking on Pound 4 Pound with Kamaru & Henry, Arman Tsarukyan claimed that he has a better kicking game than Islam. One thing I can say is that he is right on the boxing front, Makhachev has grown leaps and bounds over the last few years. As such, Tsarukyan is going to have to keep him at range and utilize his feet as much as possible.
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan face-to-face (via X)Here are some stats from UFCStats.com that really highlight how the title challenger needs to keep the champion moving and keep him at range with his striking:
| Category | Islam Makhachev | Arman Tsarukyan | Strategic Notes for Arman |
| Average Fight Time | 10:34 | 12:36 | Arman has shown he can endure lengthy fights, so his cardio could be key in dragging Islam into the later rounds. |
| Height | 5’10” | 5’7″ | The height difference slightly favours Islam, but Arman’s reach advantage could offset this. |
| Reach | 70″ | 72″ | Arman’s reach advantage is crucial. He needs to utilise his kicks and jabs to maintain distance and avoid Islam’s grappling range. |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox | Arman should exploit the open stance match-up by targeting body and leg kicks, which can disrupt Islam’s balance and grappling attempts/setups. |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 2.65 | 3.79 | Arman lands more strikes during fights generally. He needs to stay active with his strikes, particularly kicks, to force Islam to keep reseting his offence. |
| Striking Accuracy | 59% | 48% | Islam is more accurate in the octagon, so Arman must prioritise volume and stay unpredictable with his strikes and kicks to limit counters from the Champion. |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 1.54 | 1.84 | Islam has the better striking defence across their UFC careers. Arman must remain mobile, use feints, and avoid prolonged exchanges at close range. |
| Takedowns/15 Min | 3.19 | 3.25 | Both are strong wrestlers, but Arman must focus on defending takedowns and avoiding grappling exchanges, because this is where Islam excels. |
| Takedown Accuracy | 53% | 37% | Islam is more efficient at landing takedowns. Arman should use kicks to attack from angles that make it harder for Islam to close the distance. |
| Takedown Defence | 90% | 75% | Arman’s takedown defence is solid but not on Islam’s level. Maintaining range with mid-range kicks and low kicks can reduce Islam’s ability to shoot effectively. |
| Submission Avg/15 Min | 1.1 | 0 | Islam’s submission threat is high. Arman must avoid clinch exchanges and scrambles where Islam could capitalise. |
1. Arman Tsarukyan is training with the only man to ever beat Islam
Makhachev has only ever been beaten once in the professional ranks of MMA, by a fighter called Adriano Martins. The Brazilian star actually knocked out the reigning lightweight champion back in October 2015. He has been training with the title challenger over the past few months ahead of the rematch.
Islam Makhachev’s first loss (Image via Facebook/YouTube)Speaking back in December, Martins explained why he believes that Tsarukyan has the ability to defeat the reigning 115-pound king.
Arman has a pretty solid game: good striking, great wrestling and also a very good level in the ground. And he never gets tired, just like Islam. It’s going to be a five-round fight, so I believe the turning point will be the strategy. If Arman does everything we are training under coach Parrumpa, I truly believe he will be the second man to beat Makhachev — now getting his belt.
Adriano Martins on UFC 311 title bout
This should be an absolute barnburner on Saturday night, and as Martins says this will probably go all five rounds to determine the 155-pound king of the UFC. Hopefully, the fight will live up to the immense hype and start off the first PPV (UFC 311) event of 2025 in a big way.
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